Science as the Division of Labor

Sunday, February 25, 2007

I give you two ideas in Economic thought: the division of labor, and opportunity cost.

The division of labor is the idea of tasks becoming increasingly specialized--like an assembly line--in order to maximize the efficiency of output. If I spend all day milking cows and my brother spends all day shearing sheep, more sheep will be sheared and more cows will be milked than if I had taken it upon myself to do both tasks alone.

While most people think of the "cost" of something in terms of monetary value, economists describe the cost of anything in terms of the opportunities that were foregone in order to attain it. In other words, when I spend five bucks on a McDonald's value meal, the cost of that meal isn't $5. It's everything else that I could have used that five dollars to buy, but now cannot because I have traded it for the food. This notion is referred to as the "opportunity cost" of a thing, rather than the monetary cost.

A common corollary to the opportunity cost theory is that information is costly. Even if you don't have to pay money to read this blog post, you have to spend time actually reading it. Spending that time means foregoing all the alternative use of that amount of time--hence, information always has a cost. This is because everything has a cost.

Recently, a commenter stated:

We all have jobs. Everyone from janitors to CEO's and mechanics to mechanical engineers. They spend a majority of their time (most likely) working on whatever it is they specifically do. In order to engage in debate of any scientific nature they have to essentially stand on the backs of people whose job it is to actually do the science. We trust those people who have made it their JOB to find this information out to be correct and to make sure that the others in their profession are correct.
The fallacy of this logic becomes more apparent, I think, when put into context by the notion of the division of labor.

Think about this for a moment: you are shopping for a new car, and are approached by a salesman. He says "you need to buy this car, it's the best one that there is." Would you trust him at his word?

"How do you know that?" You might feel compelled to ask.

"I don't really know anything about it, my job is only to specialize in selling things," he tells you casually, "but a whole bastion of experts on car design, manufacture, and electronics have collaborated to produce this automobile, and I don't think that you or I have the experience necessary to judge their conclusions on the matter."

Wouldn't you be a little...skeptical?

It's the same with science. Scientists are in essence a function of the division of labor; they are specialists in certain categories of information. Just as the assembly line was valuable because it allowed the production of good cars at a cheaper price, so are scientists valuable for producing information that would be too costly for an amateur to find. After all, if we are responsible for both milking and shearing, we aren't going to be doing nearly as much of either than if there were two of us, with each of us specializing in one or the other.

Likewise, the microbiologist specializes in producing information that could be helpful to the marine biologist, and vice versa. If there were no division of labor among biologists, scarcely anything would be learned on any given subject.

However, that doesn't mean that all information is created equal. Let us return to our car salesman example, only this time apply it to a conversation between a microbiologist and a marine biologist.

Microbiologist: The behavior of that dolphin you are studying is coming as a result of exposure to a particular strand of E. coli that I have been studying very intensely.

Marine Biologist: How do you know that?

Microbiologist: It is not for you, a non-Microbiologist, to ask that. As the sole microbiologist between the two of us, my conclusions are to be trusted as valid.

Do you see the absurdity yet? Just because you specialize in producing something doesn't automatically give your product any kind of value. I think it can be taken as trivially true that it's just as easy to mass produce crap that nobody wants as it is to mass produce stuff that people will actually buy.

Likewise, it's at least as easy to produce bad information as it is to produce accurate information. There is no more reason to accept the word of a specialist, or many specialists, than there is to blindly accept the word of the car salesman. The responsibility of what to believe and what to buy is, in each case, on no one's back but your own.

9 comments:

Peter said...

Part Two of Adam's Post

Science and Darwinism

(Yes Adam I'm that pretentious, I'm writing your blog for you with the authority of say... a car salesman)

The neat thing about Science as it has existed since say... the sophists. Is that it is irrelevant to the opinions of the masses and to the actual scientists at any given time in history. This is because after theories arise (brought to you by one or two select scientists --car salesman--) they then must survive the scrutiny of other scientists --other car salesmen-- and professional skeptics --Ralph Nader--. Even once this survival is obtained in the short term the theory is not in the clear --in fact it never is-- It must also stand the test of time. Lamarck was a scientist, his theory --we pass on to out offspring traits we acquire in our lives-- was wrong, and yet (for a very brief time) considered plausible. Inevitably, another theory came and ousted it. Same as Einstein's gravity for Newton's, Copernicus' solar system for Ptolemy’s etc. etc.

Anyway, I know you know all this, but I bring it up to make a point. I'm assuming this post was spurred on by the whole global warming thing (maybe even written right after Al Gore got his Oscar). My point is: how we feel about global warming now is irrelevant. In time through Darwinian style selection GW may yield to a better understanding of the world and it's climate (Just as 1970 fears of global cooling yielded to where we are now). Your post seems to criticize science itself; I think that might be misplacing the blame. Ultimately the method will prevail revealing greater understanding of what we might call pragmatically truth. Not absolute truth but truth to the level where we might (for the sake of pragmatism) be willing to ride on that airplane or build that nuclear reactor. Yes it's wrong to believe one scientist alone and yes at moments in time even so-called scientific consensus' can be lamentably invalid but the scientific method relies on Darwinian selection of sorts. A method that ultimately moves in a direction from the ill-suited (untrue) toward the suitable (more true --pragmatically true--)

The people who perhaps you should blame are primarily not the scientists, but the pundits who have assumed that global warming has reached that level of pragmatic truth and therefore we must spend time and energy (cost --as you explained--) to avert it's consequences.

But... speaking of pragmatism... even if global warming is a red-hot-herring (I'm sorry, couldn't resist) how bad would it be to spend all that time and energy on finding alternative fuels??? Even if we aren’t averting ecological disaster we would still be reducing our dependence on foreign oil and possibly sparking a future technological revolution.

So what's your big methane producing beef?

Adam Gurri said...

My point is: how we feel about global warming now is irrelevant.

And my point is this: how we feel about it now is relevant to the decisions we make. I'm not talking about what will ultimately be accepted as the most accurate truth. I'm talking about how you make a decision with the information you have right now; be you a consumer, a voter, a policymaker, or a peer. Science cannot be "irrelevant to the opinions of the masses", because it is the opinions of mass numbers of people that shape the structure of the ideas that circulate. The opinions of the scientists about their own studies, the opinions of other specialists about someone else's field of research.

In short, there is not overarching thing called "science"--science is a stereotype, just as an "economy" is a stereotype. The reality is far more individual and variable.

Mind you, I'm not arguing that the truth is variable. Nor am I criticizing science. I am simply making a case that what it is has more in common with a laborer than it does with a Guardian from Plato's Republic.

But... speaking of pragmatism... even if global warming is a red-hot-herring (I'm sorry, couldn't resist) how bad would it be to spend all that time and energy on finding alternative fuels??? Even if we aren’t averting ecological disaster we would still be reducing our dependence on foreign oil and possibly sparking a future technological revolution.

The market is far better equipped to produce such a "technological revolution"--because discovering said alternative fuel source would be immensely profitable. The idea that you need government to direct people's funds to the proper activity is a notion that has failed just about every empirical test.

Let me put it to you this way: how much do you know about the oil crisis of the 1970s? Did you know, for instance, that one of the biggest factors was Nixon's setting a price controls on oil and natural gas sold in the United states? I've heard estimates that we lost as much as a fifth of our oil production capacity in the 70's, and all because perfectly full oil wells were plugged up after it was no longer profitable to drill them.

Since domestic companies couldn't turn a profit, oil imports more than doubled during this period (data collaborated by the link I provided above), meaning that we were much more dependent upon foreign oil by the time the OPEC boycotts came than we would have been.

The government sank plenty of money into research for alternative fuel sources then, but for over a decade oil was in short supply and the government never did discover that viable alternative.

In a voluntary exchange, both parties believe that they are benefiting. In government-funded endeavors, politicians are taking money that wasn't originally theirs, and using it in such a way as to make themselves look good--can you see which incentive structure might be better equipped to foster innovation? Particularly where there are long-term consequences involved that might occur beyond a politician's term...

The money it takes to fund government projects is money that investors cannot use to give money to the companies that they believe is more likely to come up with an efficient alternative. All getting the government involved accomplishes is to have fewer people making judgment calls, and fewer trial and error attempts to fund the right company.

In other words, using that money in the form of a government fund means drastically reducing the sample set of people who can attempt to guess which researcher will be successful, as well as the set of researchers who will be given a chance to give it a go. It's true that there will be more errors than there will be successes, but people will be taking that risk for themselves; and if the government saddles itself with people who can't come up with the solution, there is no system for holding them accountable. In the market, it's either produce something that people can use, or find a new job. In the government, it's get yourself hired, and you're set for friggin' life.

Wow that was a long rant.

Peter said...

Yes your rant was long...
I agree, I know science doesn't exist as a Platonian Ideal but the Darwinian pressures that make up the method of scientific discovery and refinement do exist in as much a sense as supply and demand exists in economics. That is to say on a painfully esoteric level that only complete losers such as you and I give a flying fuck about. I just like to rush to the defense of the scientific method because I think it never gets enough credit for giving us so much in the way of understanding and technology. It is sadly all too often relegated to the same level as so many other "methodic" world views like religions, despite the seeming disparity in results (i.e. science gives us penicillin, higher crop yields and the technologies that drive world economies while praying for health, bounty and fortune generally yield less than obvious results).

Before You dismantle my obvious affinity for the scientific method, imagine if I came here and said something like your economic proclivities are purely subjective and you have no real evidence that capitalism is superior to socialism (I don't believe that so please don't kill me). I would hold that such a phrase is just as tantamount to lunacy as "you have no real evidence that science is at all superior to religion in regard to approximating physical reality i.e. uncovering truth.” If anyone really believed that they’d never step on a plane (let alone function in any typical manner in our society).

Short of that. We agree, I DON’T think we need massive shift in federal funds to jumpstart any sort of tech revolution. My sentiment is that the government should voice its feeling of where industry and technology should be heading (generally speaking) by offer tax credits to those working in progressive fields. Not by directing and then fully funding research itself. Sadly this isn't, as of yet, the case. Example: For a long time you could get a $100,000 tax credit for your business if it or you (as an employee) purchased a vehicle over three tons (there are about 50 of them --including the hummer H2 at a whopping 9.6mpg-). Recently that credit was reduced (because of public outrage) to $25,000 (still about 1/2 to 1/3 the price of the damn car) Here's my source for that: http://www.bankrate.com/brm/itax/biz_tips/20030403b1.asp
While the most credit you can get for a hybrid is $3,000 and the average is more like $1,500! Here's my source for that: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/tax_hybrid.shtml
I don't what economy breaking policies, just sensible ones.

Adam Gurri said...

Buh? I think we may have had a misunderstanding of sorts.

imagine if I came here and said something like your economic proclivities are purely subjective and you have no real evidence that capitalism is superior to socialism (I don't believe that so please don't kill me). I would hold that such a phrase is just as tantamount to lunacy as "you have no real evidence that science is at all superior to religion in regard to approximating physical reality i.e. uncovering truth.”

I would say that science and religion are in completely different categories. Science is an activity, whereas religion is just a body of beliefs. I don't think that one is superior or inferior to the other, any more than I think that mathematics is superior to music as a method of expression--the two things have nothing to do with one another, and have completely different aims.

Anyway, as you said, we mostly agree on that stuff.

Now I will prove myself to be a difficult person by continuing to disagree with your economics. I don't think that the government even ought to provide tax breaks, because I think that that does just as much to deaden the progress in the field they're attempting to help articifically.

Think about it. Under normal circumstances, the only way for a hybrid car to become more prevalent would be for the manufacturers to develop a more efficient way of creating it; in other words, a less costly use of scarce resources.

If you give it an artificial advantage, the incentive to develop the technology is drastically reduced. In the market, there is a pressure to innovate. With the government behind the steering wheel, progress is slowed if not halted entirely.

Peter said...
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Peter said...

Oh for Christ sake Adam (unfortunate expletive choice intended). I (emphases on I) don't think science or religion are in the same field either!

But you go try telling the people who think that stem-cell research is an abomination before god and that creationism should be taught in high school science classes that science and religion aren’t at odds with each other. Let me continue to simplify my argument being as you intend to be difficult (as you felt the need to point out). Economics concerns itself with the exchange of wealth (yes?). Religion and Science both try and concern themselves with the exchange of "truths" in this sense they are often at odds. I agree with you, religion is just a body of beliefs with no active method at attaining greater truths but that's not because religious people believe religion to be a side dish to our great search for reality, it’s because truly religious people believe that their religions ARE TRUTH AND REALITY. Try telling Thomas Aquinas or L. Ron Hubbard or Joseph Smith or `Abd Allah ibn `Abbas or any other religious "SCHOLAR" that they’re not actively seeking truth. No Adam, I don't think science and religion should be completing for intellectual influence but the religious people sure as hell do.

As to your other point. Forget Hybrids. Do you actually disagree that a $25,000 tax credit for a vehicle that gets 9.6mpg should be removed???

Adam Gurri said...

Let me continue to simplify my argument being as you intend to be difficult

Hee hee hee...my work here is done.

Economics concerns itself with the exchange of wealth

Economics is generally defined as "the science of choice under scarcity" (Yeah...I'm just gonna keep right on being difficult)

Religion and Science both try and concern themselves with the exchange of "truths" in this sense they are often at odds.

This is where we disagree. Neither thing "concerns" itself with anything. As I said earlier, "Science" is just a stereotype, as is "Religion". People concern themselves with the actual beliefs involved. And are you in fact arguing that "Science" states that stem-cell research is a good thing? Value judgments cannot be tested or disproven; if you believe that killing a fetus is equivalent to murder, then there is no way to scientifically dispute that fact.

What science is to me is a process; attempting to devise the simplest theories with the most explanatory power, then devising tests of the empirical predictions that those theories make. Those tests must be imitable, so that anyone will be able to see whether or not you're just pulling it out of your ass. Since you have to be able to imitate it, the test itself must be relatively simple and elegant. Thus, the selective pressures in this tradition favor the simplest theories that explain the most, and can be tested by the simplest procedures.

However, choosing to believe any one of those theories is not scientific. That is a leap of faith. There are an infinite possible explanations for any given event; the scientific tradition has generally positively selected those explanations with the most practical results. A surgeon can therefore say that if his understanding of the human anatomy is correct, he will be able to perform the operation without cutting through any major vessels or organs. However, the act of believing that his understanding is definitely the correct one is an act of faith; no more, no less.

There is only a lack of faith when one operates on an "if...then" basis, making decisions based upon those theories that seem mostly likely (in one's private judgment) to be the correct ones, of those that one is aware of.

In other words, be it Dawkins or a cleric, when someone tells me that something is a certain way, I understand that they are presenting me with their beliefs, which exist on faith. Not to say that all beliefs are created equal, mind you; but getting into what Truth (c) is will always be an exercise in speculation.

Do you actually disagree that a $25,000 tax credit for a vehicle that gets 9.6mpg should be removed???

Only if it's being removed prejudicially. Giving a specific line of cars a tax break that others don't get is just an indirect way of subsidizing. And you can guess how I feel about subsidies.

But you didn't address my point: don't you agree that the market provides a far more effective incentive structure for promoting innovation than any government direction could? Be it subsidies or tax breaks, do you disagree with the logic of my argument that both cases result in discouraging innovation rather than promoting it?

Peter said...

God! (also unfortunate expletive) You just have to be an asshole don't you.

First of all, please note that in none of my previous responses did I claim that science or religion for that matter purveys truth. I am very careful about that because A. Its good policy to keep an open mind (but mostly) b. because the argument that we can never know anything empirically i.e. truth is an argument you spew forth more regularly than a fucking bulimic does chicken (very unfortunate metaphor). If you'd take your head out of your ass and stop trying to be contrary for the petty juvenile sake of it you'd realize that what you just said, "There are an infinite possible explanations for any given event; the scientific tradition has generally positively selected those explanations with the most practical results.” is nearly identical to what I wrote in my first response: "Ultimately the method will prevail revealing greater understanding of what we might call pragmatically truth. Not absolute truth but truth to the level where we might (for the sake of pragmatism) be willing to ride on that airplane or build that nuclear reactor." Any remaining variation you might detect in those two statements is arguing semantics. Thank you for reiterating and supporting my original argument.

In that last post you also reaffirmed that science and religion are competing for similar ends, if in fact both are purveyors of explanations be they the religious ones or the ones that that yield "the most practical results," (the scientific ones). Thank you again for reiterating and reaffirming my original post.

I suppose where you and I might differ is that I believe (subjective subjective subjective!) we should all have a certain level of respect for "those explanations with the most practical results" (as you put it) or (as I put it) pragmatic truth. It is my BELEIF (subjective subjective subjective!!! you fuck) that earnest gentle enthusiasm should be spread for adopting ideas that yield "practical results" and people should be made more aware of said results and that schools and indeed nations and cultures should foster a profound need to find practical solutions. And that all this nurturing be done not by brain washing our youth into believing Copernicus or Newton or Watson and Crick but rather showing them the experiments they did, the logic that got them there and inevitably the practical solutions that came about (space probes, rockets, genetic medicine) as a result of said research. Furthermore, I believe (again) that we should, as a society, frown upon any teaching done to children that insists upon unquestioning truths (as almost all orthodox faiths insist). No child should be treated as an empty vessel to be filled with reality. No child should ever be told "truths" be they scientific or religious. Children should be shown the methods and the result and allowed to decide for themselves. Obviously this kind of fantasy-land education system does not and may never exist but I believe much can be done culturally to shift us all in its direction. I'm sure you agree with me. Your original post fits exactly into this view. We need assholes like you to be overly critical of any "belief system" but as you said science as an activity or a method is not a belief system. And that is what my corollary to your post was essentially about. I never wanted an argument about this. I was simply pointing out the virtues of the system even if many of the systems parts (many in climatology) may be corrupted (what you were pointing out). So what the fuck do you want from me??????

As to your other point. Absolutely competition is good for development. I'm most upset over the fact that right now subsidies are stifling competition by keeping it so profitable to make gas guzzling behemoths. My dearest wish is for a level playing field.
But…. How about this?... People are frugal, give people a greater tax credit for hybrids and future technologies and they'll all want hybrids and future technologies. If they all want these future technologies then companies will rise to COMPETE for a rapidly going market. Right now there’s no COMPETITION because there’s no demand. Stimulate demand and you stimulate growth. Now I'm no economist so I might be way off base here. But I think past history backs me up. We've never had tax legislation that favors automotive innovation (quite the opposite); and, surprise surprise, we've not had much automotive innovation. I never suggested funding researchers. I suggested tax credits for consumers to stimulate the market. Now please be difficult and tell me how I continue to be wrong. But kindly do it without agreeing with me twice as you did in your last post.

Adam Gurri said...

Thank you for reiterating and supporting my original argument.

Hey, what are friends for?

In that last post you also reaffirmed that science and religion are competing for similar ends,

No I didn't. I said that there is a competitive environment at work in the scientific tradition that generally weeds out all those theories but the ones with the most practical results. That doesn't mean that it really favor any theory, any more than evolution "favors" the animal that happens to be alive at any moment. It just means that those theories haven't been scratched off the list yet.

It isn't "competing" with religion at all.

we should all have a certain level of respect for "those explanations with the most practical results" (as you put it) or (as I put it) pragmatic truth.

I don't quite understand that. I respect the minds who managed to create elegance and simplicity out of a complicated world; but how can you "respect" a theory? Other than, I guess, to believe in it?

that earnest gentle enthusiasm should be spread for adopting ideas that yield "practical results"

Oh, absolutely. You ought to read my longass post about this stuff; I also believe that people ought to be working to get the most accurate understanding that they can, and then to attempt to put that understanding in the most persuasive terms that they can.

And that all this nurturing be done not by brain washing our youth into believing Copernicus or Newton or Watson and Crick but rather showing them the experiments they did, the logic that got them there and inevitably the practical solutions that came about

Again, no disagreement here.

Furthermore, I believe (again) that we should, as a society, frown upon any teaching done to children that insists upon unquestioning truths

If you believe in God or creation, I see no reason to frown upon it. If you believe there is no such thing as evolution, then you are making a statement that can be tested, and unless you're willing to take the subject seriously by providing some evidence, I see plenty of reason to frown upon it.

But sorry, I don't think that society should "frown upon" anyone who has faith--but when you start making an argument for anything, you are of course opening yourself up to criticism. So I make the most persuasive case for my own perspective; and either we discuss it directly or we discuss the subject in seperate places (IE, I could be writing a blog post in response to something I saw on television). In either case, a discussion is going on and I see no problem.

The thing that bothered me about Dawkins was that he thought he was so special, he shouldn't discuss his point of view with anyone who was religious. And that was because, being a man of science, his perspective was just innately superior to anything a religious person might have to say.

But all you do when you behave that way is allow the religious to frame the debate, because you're too far up your own ass to come out and engage them as equals.

Economists have this problem in a big way too, by the way. They hear all the typical stereotypes about "trade deficits" or "inequality" or "tax cuts for the rich", and they just look down their nose at the people they perceive as ignorant laymen. Yet if the goal is to have a more accurate understanding, every Economist should see it as his duty to try and make the most persuasive case for their perspective.

Children should be shown the methods and the result and allowed to decide for themselves.

On this point, I agree wholeheartedly. I think that they ought to be presented with their teacher's perspective (as they shouldn't have to start in a void when deciding what to believe) but it should be emphasized that that is what it is; a perspective. Probably an educated one, but still open to criticism.

I never wanted an argument about this. I was simply pointing out the virtues of the system even if many of the systems parts (many in climatology) may be corrupted (what you were pointing out). So what the fuck do you want from me??????

Why, to piss you off and get you to argue with me some more, obviously.

Check and mate!

We've never had tax legislation that favors automotive innovation (quite the opposite); and, surprise surprise, we've not had much automotive innovation.

We never had tax legislation to support the development of the Personal Computer, and surprise surprise, we haven't had much...oh wait.

We never had tax legislation to support the development of cell phone technology, and surprise surprise...oh, wrong again.

We never had tax legislation to support the development of digital camera and video technology and...yeah, you get the picture.

You can't "stimulate" demand. If you want to know how the market is already working, think about this: why is is so profitable to make "gas-guzzling behemoths"?

Because the design is simple. They may take more gas to fuel, but it actually uses more energy reasources to manufacture a complex system like the hybrid car than it does to manufacture an SUV.

So if everyone bought a hybrid car, the result would conceivably be that the price of oil would shoot right up, since so much more of it would be getting burned to fuel the production line.

Let me put it this way: if there was a fire in the room, how would you put it out? Would you use water, or would you just turn down the thermometer until it read 50 degrees, and call anyone an idiot who said that it was hot in the room?

Screwing around with the price system is just toying with the thermometer. Price reflects an underlying reality--until, of course, government policy comes in to much things up. Mess with the price of things, and you won't put out the fire--you'll just twiddle your thumbs and ignore it until it burns you alive.